Futures, Damned Futures, and Statistics – Long Term Scenarios Flowing From The Farrer By-Election
Kosmos Samaras at the Redbridge Group has written a really interesting piece on The Farrer byelection on LinkedIn with an extended version in his newsletter. Essentially the message is that the by election results are probably replicable in regional seats mainly held by the Liberals and Nationals hold because of structural differences in those electorates, but the results are not replicable in urban and peri-urban seats because of different structural/demographic issues. This is despite the drivers of political unrest being somewhat similar: cost of living issues and dissatisfaction with the political class/elites. I encourage you to go and read the full article where Kos breaks down the demographic groups that are in play.
Before I go on it is important to note that Kos was previously a Labor Party operative and to a lesser extent so was I, having been President of Country Labor in Victoria for 5 years, and having run twice for Federal pre-selection. I would ask the reader to put that to one side and respond to the issues rather than “play the man” (and I think I can use this term as we are both men). So, by all means criticise and critique mine and Kos’s arguments here but let’s keep it civil and on the logic and the data.
My starting point is that I agree with the analysis that Kos has produced, and I think he is much better placed to analyse the data and look at short to medium term implications than I am. What I would like to do as a futurist is explore longer term scenarios and counterfactuals as a way of thinking through the implications. To do this I have a short initial list:
1/ My agreement with Kos is wrong and seats in urban Australia can be won by One Nation.
2/ The demographic differences further fragment Australian politics into multiple political blocs: Labor, Liberal, Teal, Greens, One Nation with Labor as the medium-term dominant grouping (I need to come up with a snappier name).
3/ The Coalition fights back (hard to see that happening but that may be just my biases which need challenging).
I will start with the middle scenario in sketch form to start with. As with every good scenario what we need first if the underpinning assumptions:
1/ The scenario has some parallels with the situation in the UK at the moment with two major differences. Firstly, we have a preferential voting system and compulsory turning up to vote (as opposed to compulsory voting) while the UK has a first past the post system and no compulsory turning up to vote. Our system tends to limit parties that have a “hard ceiling”. Getting 25-30% of the vote in Australia does not work if the rest of the electorate is opposed to you and Kos is showing in his analysis that there is a lot of people in urban Australia opposed to One Nation and what it stands for. In the UK 25-30% of the population supporting you can win you a seat if the turnout of opposing voters is low and enough candidates run.
2/ One Nation wins some coalition seats in the regions, and the coalition fails to win back/loses seats in urban Australia to the Teals and the Greens (basically Kos’s analysis). This delivers Federal government to Labor in the medium term with the opposition split into four sub-groups close to each other in seat numbers (Teals and other Independents, One Nation, Liberals, Nationals). The Nationals distance themselves from the Liberals to try and stave off One Nation. Meaningful policy positions from the grouping of non-government parties becomes almost impossible.
3/ In the modern world trust and support of governments is shorter lived so beyond the medium-term support for Labor falls away, further fragmenting the political landscape.
Please come back tomorrow where I will flesh out the medium scenario and give it a snappy name. Meanwhile if you would like to challenge my assumptions, or put up alternative scenarios, go for it, and I will incorporate your comments into my writing.
Paul Higgins